WEEKLY WHINE

NFL 1998: Oilers fans

Now that the NFL's 1998 preseason is through, we must factor that information into a series of complex formulas [or formulae if you prefer] in order to estimate what the regular season and postseason. Note, however, that because of chaotic effects and extreme uncertainty, these formulas are only accurate to one part in two, and for accurate predictions [as in, far more accurate than you'll see here on GoobNet], you need accuracy to within one part in several quintillion. So, to increase our accuracy, we'll need to ask a few questions.

Can Kerry Collins regain his form? He took a nasty shot in the preseason last year, and he got another knock this year, so if you're one of those people who thinks that such a whapoosh can affect someone throughout the season, you'll expect Kerry to suck. And that's probably how you'll phrase it, too. Carolina is basically the same team as it was last year [plus the readdition of Kevin Greene], so it will depend upon him.

Who will start opposite Jerry Rice? San Francisco was without Rice for the preseason, so the same receivers showed up: JJ Stokes and Terrell Owens. Each has a good chance at being the starter, and no matter which way Steve Mariucci goes, he'll get a winner. But, of course, he doesn't want just a winner. He wants the one that will get his team past the serious NFC contenders like Green Bay.

Is Tampa Bay a serious NFC contender? No. The harsh reality for Tony Dungy and his Bucs is that no team can spontaneously come into being as a title contender unless it has absolutely no weaknesses. There is a weakness in Tampa, and it's named Trent Dilfer. Yes, he played well last year, but at times, he seemed to drop back to what he used to look like back in the days when he and his teammates wore those funky orange uniforms. This type of thing has happened before around the league, even to the Buccaneers themselves. In the early 1980s, they suddenly emerged with a 1981 NFC Central championship and could have gone to the Super Bowl, but shortly thereafter, they went back to being the same old Yuck-aneers. That won't happen to these Bucs, but they still won't be able to go all the way.

Will this coach improve the Raiders significantly? 56 NFL players are currently older than 34-year-old Jon Gruden, including two of his own players: 39-year-old Wade Wilson and 37-year-old Albert Lewis. In fact, he's almost nine years younger than the Falcons' Steve DeBerg. Oakland had a lackluster preseason, and indications are that the Raiders will continue to play pretty much the same football, leading the league in percent pass plays and in penalties. Gruden would probably like to change things significantly, but he won't get that opportunity until Al Davis sells the team, which will probably take place shortly after the United States builds a useful space station.

Will Miami's new offense work? The last time they went 4-0 in the preseason, they went 11-4-1 in the regular season, winning the 1981 AFC East title. Does Jimmy Johnson really intend to do things differently this year? You will no doubt recall that the Dolphins performed three straight onside kicks against the Buccaneers, all in the first half. That was sure different, but in the regular season, the differences will not be so aggressive. Johnson, of course, is committed to running the football. Unlike his previous two seasons when Dan Marino wound up passing the whole time, he means business - to the extent of firing his offensive coordinator. One of the previous knocks on the "Don't Call Us 'Fish', We're Mammals" was that their audibles were always passes and usually easy to decode passes. No more, vows Johnson. If the preseason is any indication, he's sticking to his word.

Will the Oilers emerge as a force? In their last year with that name, the Tennessee Oilers have made some changes. In the third of four straight seasons in different homes, they'll play at Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville. Unlike the Houston Astrodome and the Liberty Bowl, there will actually be a crowd there, and, more to the point, that crowd will be cheering for an improved team. Steve McNair and Eddie George are joined by former Steeler Yancey "Quit laughing, that's my name" Thigpen, and if the defense plays as well as it did in their preseason finale, a 16-13 win over the Broncos, Tennessee is on its way out of the AFC basement.