WEEKLY WHINE

The grid

Were you expecting things to play out like this at the 2015 Women’s World Cup?

Yeah, right. You did not expect Switzerland to hang ten on Ecuador. And you definitely did not expect Colombia to teach France a lesson like that.

So what will happen in the remainder of the group phase? We have no idea, and we will not even pretend that we do. Instead, we will merely tell you all the possible outcomes in each group, so that no matter what happens over the next three days, you will be prepared.

Unless, of course, Ecuador reach the round of sixteen. If that somehow happens, you should retreat to your nearest panic room.

GROUP A

It is do or die for the Ferns, who must defeat China PR to have any hope of advancing. China PR, the Netherlands, and Canada are all likely to reach the elimination phase. However, there is the possibility of a drawing of lots between Canada and New Zealand to decide second and third places.

	China PR win	CHN-NZL draw	New Zealand win
Netherlands win	NED, CHN advance [team that wins by more is first] CAN third [4 pts, GD ≤0] NZL out	NED first If NED win by ≥2 goals: CHN second, CAN third [4 pts, GD ≤-1] If NED win by 1 goal: Second decided on goals scored between CHN, CAN [4 pts, GD 0; CAN won v CHN] NZL out	NED first If either NED or NZL wins by ≥2 goals: NZL second, CAN third [4 pts, GD ≤0] If both NED, NZL win by 1 goal and NED score more goals than NZL: CAN second, NZL third [4 pts, GD 0] If both NED, NZL win by 1 goal with same scoreline: CAN, NZL draw lots for second and third [4 pts, GD 0; CAN v NZL was 0-0] If both NED, NZL win by 1 goal and NZL score more goals than NED: NZL second, CAN third [4 pts, GD 0] CHN out
NED-CAN draw	CHN first, CAN second NED third [4 pts, GD 0] NZL out	CAN first Second decided on goals scored between CHN, NED [4 pts, GD 0; CHN won v NED] NZL out	CAN first If NZL win by ≥2 goals: NZL second, NED third [4 pts, GD 0] If NZL win by 1 goal: Second decided on goals scored between NZL, NED [4 pts, GD 0; NED won v NZL] CHN out
Canada win	CAN first, CHN second NED third [3 pts, GD ≤-1] NZL out		CAN first, NZL second If CHN lose by less than NED: CHN third [3 pts, GD ≤-1], NED out If CHN, NED lose by same number of goals: Third decided on goals scored between CHN, NED [3 pts, GD ≤-1; CHN won v NED] If NED lose by less than CHN: NED third [3 pts, GD ≤-1], CHN out

GROUP B

Thailand and Côte d’Ivoire were expected to merely make up the numbers, but a respectable showing against Norway and a last gasp victory in the Elephantine Derby has the Thai squad dreaming of a place in the last sixteen. As you can see, though, they will in all probability need a result against Germany to get there. If both Thailand and Côte d’Ivoire win, we could see a drawing of lots between Germany and Norway to decide second and third places.

	Côte d’Ivoire win	CIV-NOR draw	Norway win
Thailand win	THA first If THA win by ≥7 goals more than CIV: NOR second, GER third [4 pts, GD ≤+2] If THA win by 6 goals more than CIV: Second decided on goals scored between GER, NOR [4 pts, GD ≤+3; GER v NOR was 1-1] If THA win by ≤5 goals more than CIV: GER second, NOR third [4 pts, GD ≤+3] CIV out	THA first, NOR second GER third [4 pts, GD ≤+9] CIV out	NOR first, THA second GER third [4 pts, GD ≤+9] CIV out
THA-GER draw	GER first If CIV win by ≥8 goals: THA second, NOR third [4 pts, GD ≤-4] If CIV win by 7 goals: Second decided on goals scored between THA, NOR [4 pts, GD -3; NOR won v THA] If CIV win by ≤6 goals: NOR second, THA third [4 pts, GD -3] CIV out	GER first, NOR second THA third [4 pts, GD -3] CIV out	NOR first, GER second THA third [4 pts, GD -3] CIV out
Germany win	GER first, NOR second If total margin of victory by GER, CIV is ≥9: CIV third [3 pts, GD ≥-10], THA out If total margin of victory by GER, CIV is 8: Third decided on goals scored between CIV, THA [3 pts, GD -4 to -10; THA won v CIV] If total margin of victory by GER, CIV is ≤7: THA third [3 pts, GD -4 to -9], CIV out	GER first, NOR second THA third [3 pts, GD ≤-4] CIV out	GER, NOR advance [GER first unless NOR win by ≥7 goals more than GER] THA third [3 pts, GD ≤-4] CIV out

GROUP C

The most straightforward of the groups. Unless some crazy shit happens in Winnipeg tomorrow, Switzerland and Cameroon are playing for second place. A draw will put both of them on four points, which should get them both into the elimination phase.

	Switzerland win	SUI-CMR draw	Cameroon win
Ecuador win	SUI first, JPN second If total margin of victory by ECU, SUI is ≥21: ECU third [3 pts, GD ≥-14], CMR out If total margin of victory by ECU, SUI is 20: Third decided on goals scored between ECU, CMR [3 pts, GD +4 to -14; CMR won v ECU] If total margin of victory by ECU, SUI is ≤19: CMR third [3 pts, GD +4 to -13], ECU out	JPN first, SUI second CMR third [4 pts, GD +5] ECU out	CMR first, JPN second If total margin of victory by ECU, CMR is ≥24: ECU third [3 pts, GD ≥-14], SUI out If total margin of victory by ECU, CMR is 23: Third decided on goals scored between ECU, SUI [3 pts, GD +7 to -14; SUI won v ECU] If total margin of victory by ECU, CMR is ≤22: SUI third [3 pts, GD +7 to -13], ECU out
ECU-JPN draw	JPN first, SUI second CMR third [3 pts, GD ≤+4] ECU out		JPN first, CMR second SUI third [3 pts, GD ≤+7] ECU out
Japan win

GROUP D

The Group of Death has exceeded expectations to date. Accordingly, we are not prepared to offer any predictions as to which of the below outcomes will be the one to happen. We will simply draw your attention to two very interesting boxes below. First, if Nigeria defeat the United States and the Australia-Sweden match ends in a draw, Nigeria, the US, and Australia will all be tied on four points, and Sweden will be eliminated despite being only one point off the lead. Second, if Australia defeat Sweden by two goals and Nigeria draw with the US, there could be a drawing of lots between Nigeria and Sweden to decide third and fourth place; however, they will both be on two points, which won’t be enough to reach the last sixteen.

	Australia win	AUS-SWE draw	Sweden win
Nigeria win	AUS first If NGA win by ≥2 goals: NGA second, USA third [4 pts, GD ≤0] If NGA win by 1 goal: USA second, NGA third [4 pts, GD -1] SWE out	If NGA win by ≥3 goals: NGA first, AUS second, USA third [4 pts, GD ≤-1] If NGA win by 2 goals: NGA first, USA second, AUS third [4 pts, GD 0] If NGA win by 1 goal: USA first, AUS second, NGA third [4 pts, GD -1] SWE out	SWE first If NGA win by ≥2 goals: NGA second, USA third [4 pts, GD ≤0] If NGA win by 1 goal: USA second, NGA third [4 pts, GD -1] AUS out
NGA-USA draw	AUS first, USA second If AUS win by ≥3 goals: NGA third [2 pts, GD -2], SWE out If AUS win by 2 goals and NGA score more goals than SWE: NGA third [2 pts, GD -2], SWE out If AUS win by 2 goals and NGA, SWE score same number of goals: NGA, SWE draw lots for third and fourth [2 pts, GD -2; SWE-NGA was 3-3] If AUS win by 2 goals and SWE score more goals than NGA: SWE third [2 pts, GD -2], NGA out If AUS win by 1 goal: SWE third [2 pts, GD -1], NGA out	USA first, AUS second SWE third [3 pts, GD 0] NGA out	SWE, USA advance [SWE first if win by ≥3 goals] AUS third [3 pts, GD ≤-1] NGA out
United States win	USA first, AUS second SWE third [2 pts, GD ≤-1] NGA out		USA first, SWE second AUS third [3 pts, GD ≤-1] NGA out

GROUP E

Brazil, of course, are already confirmed as group winners, and Costa Rica are hoping that Vadão will rest some of his stars accordingly. It looks like this group has only one remaining ticket to the elimination phase, which will go to the Ticas if they can defeat Brazil, or to the Korea Rep-Spain winner otherwise. Should Korea Rep and Spain play to a draw and Brazil win, there will be a three way tie for second place, which could lead to a drawing of lots.

	Korea Rep win	KOR-ESP draw	Spain win
Costa Rica win	BRA first, CRC second KOR third [4 pts, GD ≥-1] ESP out	BRA first, CRC second ESP third [2 pts, GD -1] KOR out	BRA first, CRC second ESP third [4 pts, GD ≥0] KOR out
CRC-BRA draw	BRA first, KOR second CRC third [3 pts, GD 0] ESP out		BRA first, ESP second CRC third [3 pts, GD 0] KOR out
Brazil win	BRA first, KOR second CRC third [2 pts, GD ≤-1] ESP out	BRA first If BRA win by ≥3 goals: ESP second, KOR third [2 pts, GD -2], CRC out If BRA win by 2 goals and KOR score ≥2 more goals than CRC: ESP second, KOR third [2 pts, GD -2], CRC out If BRA win by 2 goals and KOR score 1 more goal than CRC: ESP second; KOR, CRC draw lots for third and fourth [2 pts, GD -2; KOR v CRC was 2-2] If BRA win by 2 goals and CRC score at least as many goals as KOR: ESP second, CRC third [2 pts, GD -2], KOR out If BRA win by 1 goal and ESP score ≥3 more goals than CRC: ESP second, CRC third [2 pts, GD -1], KOR out If BRA win by 1 goal and ESP score 2 more goals than CRC: ESP, CRC draw lots for second and third [2 pts, GD -1; ESP v CRC was 1-1]; KOR out If BRA win by 1 goal and ESP do not score ≥2 more goals than CRC: CRC second, ESP third [2 pts, GD -1], KOR out	BRA first, ESP second CRC third [2 pts, GD ≤-1] KOR out

GROUP F

Colombia’s startling win over France has turned everything around in this group. Les Bleues will have mighty slim chances if they fall to Mexico as well. Colombia will be assured of moving on if they earn at least a point against England, but they stand a decent chance even with a loss. Fans of lot drawing should hope for England and Mexico to win, one by two goals and the other by one.

	England win	ENG-COL draw	Colombia win
Mexico win	ENG first If total margin of victory by MEX, ENG is ≥4: MEX second, COL third [4 pts, GD ≤+1] If total margin of victory by MEX, ENG is 3 and MEX score ≥2 more goals than COL: MEX second, COL third [4 pts, GD 0 to +1] If total margin of victory by MEX, ENG is 3 and MEX score 1 more goal than COL: MEX, COL draw lots for second and third [4 pts, GD 0 to +1; COL v MEX was 1-1] If total margin of victory by MEX, ENG is 3 and COL score at least as many goals as MEX: COL second, MEX third [4 pts, GD 0 to +1] If both MEX, ENG win by 1 goal: COL second, MEX third [4 pts, GD 0] FRA out	COL first If MEX win by ≥2 goals: MEX second, ENG third [4 pts, GD 0] If MEX win by 1 goal: Second decided on goals scored between MEX, ENG [4 pts, GD 0; ENG won v MEX] FRA out	COL first, MEX second If COL win by ≥2 more goals than MEX: FRA third [3 pts, GD ≤-2], ENG out If COL win by 1 more goal than MEX: Third decided on goals scored between FRA, ENG [3 pts, GD ≤-2; FRA won v ENG] If MEX win by at least as many goals as COL: ENG third [3 pts, GD ≤-1], FRA out
MEX-FRA draw	ENG first If ENG win by ≥4 goals: FRA second, COL third [4 pts, GD ≤-2] If ENG win by 3 goals: Second decided on goals scored between FRA, COL [4 pts, GD -1; COL won v FRA] If ENG win by ≤2 goals: COL second, FRA third [4 pts, GD -1] MEX out	COL first, ENG second FRA third [4 pts, GD -1] MEX out	COL first, FRA second ENG third [3 pts, GD -1] MEX out
France win	ENG, FRA advance [FRA first if win by ≥2 more goals than ENG] COL third [4 pts, GD ≤+1] MEX out	FRA first, COL second ENG third [4 pts, GD 0] MEX out