WEEKLY WHINE
Making sense of the qualifiers
Hi. With your permission, we are going to talk about the 2014 Men’s World Cup qualifiers.
Actually, that’s not true. We are going to talk about them, regardless of whether you give your permission.
If you would not like to read about them, you are free to do something else with your life. For example, you could visit the Statue of Liberty. Yes, it is now possible again. No, that does not mean the US Congress has passed a budget.
Are they gone? Okay, for the rest of you, we are going to talk about the 2014 Men’s World Cup qualifiers. There are a number of teams that still have a chance to qualify; here is how they can do it.
UEFA
Union of European Football Associations
There are nine groups in the UEFA group phase. Groups A-H have six teams, and Group I has five. The first placed team in each group qualifies for the Men’s World Cup, and the second placed teams, except for one, play off for four more places in Brazil. The second placed team with the fewest point total, not counting matches against the sixth placed team in their respective group, will be eliminated.
Everyone plays tomorrow except Belarus, who are already eliminated.
Belgium qualified on Friday, locking Croatia into second place. However, Croatia could still be eliminated as the worst of the second placed teams; a win at Scotland tomorrow would avoid that and secure their place in the playoffs.
Italy have already qualified. Bulgaria, Denmark, and Armenia can all reach the playoffs, but whoever finishes second still must hope for cooperation from Groups D and E [see the Runners Up section below]. The Czech Rep could finish second, but with nine points against non-Maltese opponents, they would be at the bottom of the runners up table and therefore cannot reach the playoffs.
- If Bulgaria win v Czech Rep and Denmark win v Malta: Bulgaria and Denmark are tied on 16 points, and second place is decided on goal difference: currently Bulgaria +6, Denmark -1.
- If Bulgaria win v Czech Rep and Denmark draw or lose v Malta: Bulgaria finish second.
- If Bulgaria draw or lose v Czech Rep and Denmark win v Malta: Denmark finish second.
- If Bulgaria-Czech Rep is a draw, Denmark draw or lose v Malta, and Armenia win at Italy: Armenia finish second.
- If Bulgaria-Czech Rep is a draw, Denmark draw or lose v Malta, and Armenia draw or lose at Italy: Bulgaria finish second but are eliminated.
- If Czech Rep win at Bulgaria, Denmark draw or lose v Malta, and Armenia win at Italy: Czech Rep and Armenia are tied on 15 points, and second place is decided on goal difference: currently Czech Rep +3, Armenia -1.
- If Czech Rep win at Bulgaria, Denmark draw or lose v Malta, and Armenia draw or lose at Italy: Czech Rep finish second but are eliminated.
Germany qualified on Friday, and Sweden secured second place and a place in the playoffs.
The Netherlands have already qualified. Turkey, Romania, and Hungary can all take second place; these three teams all play at home tomorrow. Whoever finishes second could be eliminated depending upon the results from Groups B and E [see the Runners Up section below].
- If Turkey win v Netherlands and Romania win v Estonia: Turkey and Romania are tied on 19 points, and second place is decided on goal difference: currently Turkey +9, Romania +5.
- If Turkey win v Netherlands and Romania draw or lose v Estonia: Turkey finish second.
- If Turkey draw or lose v Netherlands and Romania win v Estonia: Romania finish second.
- If Turkey draw v Netherlands, Romania draw v Estonia, and Hungary win v Andorra: Turkey, Romania, and Hungary are tied on 17 points, and second place is decided on goal difference: currently Hungary -1.
- If Turkey draw v Netherlands, Romania draw or lose v Estonia, and Hungary draw or lose v Andorra: Turkey finish second.
- If Turkey draw v Netherlands, Romania lose v Estonia, and Hungary win v Andorra: Turkey and Hungary are tied on 17 points, and second place is decided on goal difference.
- If Turkey lose v Netherlands, Romania draw v Estonia, and Hungary win v Andorra: Romania and Hungary are tied on 17 points, and second place is decided on goal difference.
- If Turkey lose v Netherlands, Romania draw v Estonia, and Hungary draw or lose v Andorra: Romania finish second.
- If Turkey lose v Netherlands, Romania lose v Estonia, and Hungary win v Andorra: Hungary finish second.
- If Turkey lose v Netherlands, Romania lose v Estonia, and Hungary draw or lose v Andorra: Turkey and Romania are tied on 16 points, and second place is decided on goal difference.
Switzerland qualified on Friday. Iceland and Slovenia can take second place, but only Iceland is assured of advancement to the playoffs if they finish second. Both teams are away tomorrow.
- If Iceland win at Norway or Slovenia lose at Switzerland: Iceland advance to the playoffs.
- If Iceland draw or lose at Norway and Slovenia win at Switzerland: Slovenia finish second.
- If Iceland draw at Norway and Slovenia draw at Switzerland: Iceland advance to the playoffs.
- If Iceland lose at Norway and Slovenia draw at Switzerland: Slovenia finish second on goal difference.
Russia and Portugal will finish in the top two; only the order is to be decided. However, Portugal could still be eliminated as the worst of the second placed teams; a win or draw v Luxembourg tomorrow would avoid that and secure their place in the playoffs.
- If Russia lose at Azerbaijan and Portugal win v Luxembourg: Russia and Portugal are tied on 21 points, and the group is decided on goal difference: currently Russia +15, Portugal +8.
- If anything else happens: Russia qualify.
Bosnia-Herzegovina and Greece will finish in the top two; only the order is to be decided. The second placed team is still assured of a playoff place.
- If Bosnia-Herz win at Lithuania and Greece win v Liechtenstein: Bosnia-Herz and Greece are tied on 25 points, and the group is decided on goal difference: currently Bosnia-Herz +23, Greece +6.
- If Bosnia-Herz win or draw at Lithuania and Greece draw or lose v Liechtenstein: Bosnia-Herz qualify.
- If Bosnia-Herz draw or lose at Lithuania and Greece win v Liechtenstein: Greece qualify.
- If Bosnia-Herz lose at Lithuania and Greece draw v Liechtenstein: Greece qualify.
- If Bosnia-Herz lose at Lithuania and Greece lose v Liechtenstein: Bosnia-Herz and Greece are tied on 22 points, and the group is decided on goal difference.
England, Ukraine, and Montenegro are in the running. England cannot be eliminated tomorrow and can qualify with a win. Montenegro cannot qualify tomorrow and must win just to have a chance of remaining alive.
- If England win v Poland and (Ukraine win or draw at San Marino or Montenegro draw or lose v Moldova): England qualify, and Ukraine advance to the playoffs.
- If England draw or lose v Poland and Ukraine win at San Marino: Ukraine qualify, and England advance to the playoffs.
- If England draw v Poland and Ukraine draw at San Marino: England qualify, and Ukraine advance to the playoffs.
- If England lose v Poland and Ukraine draw at San Marino: England and Ukraine are tied on 19 points, and the group is decided on goal difference: currently England +25, Ukraine +16.
- If Ukraine lose at San Marino and Montenegro win v Moldova: England qualify, and second place is decided on goal difference: currently Montenegro +4.
- If Ukraine lose at San Marino and Montenegro draw or lose v Moldova: England qualify, and Ukraine advance to the playoffs.
Spain and France will finish in the top two; only the order is to be decided. The second placed team is still assured of a playoff place.
- If Spain win or draw v Georgia or France draw or lose v Finland: Spain qualify.
- If Spain lose v Georgia and France win v Finland: Spain and France are tied on 17 points, and the group is decided on goal difference: currently Spain +9, France +6.
Runners up
Below are shown the maximum and minimum point totals on which each group’s second placed team could end up, along with those teams’ current goal differences. Per the UEFA rules, this does not include matches against sixth placed teams, so each result shows who the second and sixth placed teams would be.
Note that Group B’s second placed team can have no more than 12 points; therefore, 13 points is the magic number needed to guarantee survival. Then, note that the second lowest minimum total is 10 points. Any team that cannot achieve a total of 10 points therefore cannot advance to the playoffs.
| UEFA RUNNERS UP |
| Group | Max | Min |
|---|
| 2nd | 6th | Pts | GD | 2nd | 6th | Pts | GD |
|---|
| A | Croatia | Scotland | 17 | +6 | Croatia | Wales | 11 | +2 |
| B | Armenia | Malta | 12 | -1 | Bulgaria | Malta | 8 | -1 |
| C | Sweden | Faroe Is | 17 | +4 | Sweden | Faroe Is | 14 | +4 |
| D | Turkey | Andorra | 13 | +2 | Romania | Andorra | 10 | -3 |
| E | Iceland | Cyprus | 16 | +1 | Slovenia | Cyprus | 10 | +1 |
| F | Russia | N Ireland | 18 | +14 | Portugal | Azerbaijan | 12 | +3 |
| G | Bosnia-Herz | Liechtenstein | 19 | +13 | Bosnia-Herz | Liechtenstein | 16 | +13 |
| H | Ukraine | San Marino | 15 | +7 | Montenegro | San Marino | 12 | -5 |
| I | Spain | – | 17 | +9 | France | – | 14 | +6 |
- Group B: Minimum point total occurs if Bulgaria [currently 7 pts v teams 1-5] draw v Czech Rep, Denmark draw or lose v Malta, and Armenia draw or lose at Italy.
- Group E: Minimum point total occurs if Slovenia [currently 9 pts v teams 1-5] draw at Switzerland and Iceland lose at Norway.
- Group H: Minimum point total occurs if Montenegro [currently 9 pts v teams 1-5] win v Moldova, Ukraine lose at San Marino, and Montenegro make up goal difference disadvantage to Ukraine.
This explains why the Czech Rep are eliminated. Even if they defeat Bulgaria and take second place in Group B, they will have fifteen points. Since they defeated Malta twice, subtracting those six points leaves them with only nine points.
On the other hand, if Bulgaria defeat the Czech Rep, they will have 16 points, ten against the top five. The win would give them a goal difference amongst the top five of at least zero, meaning that they could still advance to the playoffs – but only if Romania, Turkey, and Hungary all lose in Group D, or if Slovenia get a draw in Group E and Iceland lose.
CONMEBOL
Confederación Sudamericana de Fútbol
Things are very simple in CONMEBOL. Argentina and Colombia have already qualified, and four teams are eliminated. Thus, two of the remaining three qualify tomorrow, and the other one advances to the playoff against Jordan.
- If Uruguay win v Argentina and Ecuador win at Chile: Ecuador qualify. Chile and Uruguay are tied on 25 points, and fourth place is decided on goal difference: currently Chile +3, Uruguay -1.
- If Uruguay win v Argentina and Chile win v Ecuador: Chile qualify. Ecuador and Uruguay are tied on 25 points, and fourth place is decided on goal difference: currently Ecuador +5.
- If Uruguay lose or draw v Argentina or Ecuador-Chile is a draw: Ecuador and Chile qualify, and Uruguay advance to the playoff.
CONCACAF
Confederation of North/Central American and Caribbean Association Football
Two teams in CONCACAF, the United States and Costa Rica, have already qualified, and Jamaica were eliminated on Friday. There is one more place in Brazil up for grabs tomorrow, along with a place in the playoff against New Zealand.
- If Mexico win at Costa Rica and Honduras lose at Jamaica: Honduras and Mexico are tied on 14 points, and third place is decided on goal difference: currently Honduras +1, Mexico -1.
- If Panama win v United States and Mexico lose at Costa Rica: Honduras qualify. Mexico and Panama are tied on 11 points, and fourth place is decided on goal difference: currently Panama -3.
- If anything else happens: Honduras qualify, and Mexico advance to the playoff.
